Why is COVID-19 worse than the flu?

Courtesy of CDC through Unsplash

The death rate for all ages is 0.1% for seasonal flu compared to between 1% and 3 1/2% for the Novell Coronavirus (COVID-19).

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• ​The death rate for all ages is 0.1% for seasonal flu compared to between 1% and 3 1/2% for the Novell Coronavirus (COVID-19). 
  • The University of Minnesota reported on one study that found COVID-19 to have a 2.3% death rate. The reason that an exact percentage is not known is because we must rely on estimates since there are cases that we may not be aware of due to a lack of testing.
  • Being conservative and putting into perspective how enormous only 1% actually is versus .1%, consider that there are approximately 330 million Americans and if only 40 million, or 12%, of them get the flu, then 40,000 Americans may die. Whereas, if 40 million Americans get COVID-19, then 400,000 may die. 

1% is 10 times .1% and if the fatality rate is even higher for COVID-19,
then it could be up to 35 times more fatal.

• If you consider the world-wide estimates with a population of over 7 1/2 billion people and predict that only 12% get COVID-19, then over 900 million people will get it and as many as 9 million people could die. Let's hope that the extreme measures taken can diminish these numbers greatly. As of now, the number of cases world-wide are 156,000 and number of deaths 5,800.
• It has been estimated by Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist from Harvard, that between 40% to 70% of the population may get COVID-19, so it is important to take the necessary precautions to minimize it.

• The flu is estimated to have a fatality rate of 1.4% of people over age 65 in America, whereas, with COVID-19, the estimate is 6%. (A graphic is available on the article from Resnick below).
• Another factor to consider is that COVID-19 takes 5 days for symptoms to develop vs. 2 days for the flu; that allows it to spread quickly before we are aware of the danger. This makes it more than twice as contagious.
• With the ability to spread more quickly and easily than the flu and the severity of symptoms greater for many, medical facilities and staff could be overwhelmed. Treatments for other conditions may be delayed causing symptoms to worsen or fatalities due to those other illnesses.
• Also, if the number of cases rises to the millions, then the treatments may require thousands more ventilators than are available and even if we are able to get the number of ventilators needed, there may be a shortage of trained staff to operate them.
• In addition, although COVID-19 is more fatal among those over age 60, it was found in China that 41% of the serious cases were in those age 49 and under. ​

Courtesy of Olga Kononenko through Unsplash

It is so important that governments and the people of all countries, and of all ages, take steps to minimize the spread. This pandemic may lead to many changes in our world. Consider visiting the websites for the World Health Organization (WHO) and Centers for Disease Control (CDC) for more information. Some viruses can diminish as weather warms; it is too soon to know if it will slow the spread of COVID-19, but let's hope so. Until then, please follow the instructions of the CDC:

• Avoid being exposed by keeping a distance of 6 feet between yourself and others.
• Wash your hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.
• When using hand sanitizer, be sure it contains at least 60% alcohol.
• Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth with unwashed hands.
• Clean and disinfect frequently touched surfaces such as tables, doorknobs, light switches, countertops, handles, keyboards, toilets, faucets, and sinks daily. Instructions for making a disinfectant are included on the CDC website: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/prevention.html
• If you feel sick:
  • Stay home
  • Cover coughs and sneezes with a tissue and throw the tissue away
  • Clean your hands with soap and water or hand sanitizer.
  • Wear a face mask around people.

Stay healthy!

References:
AFP. (2020, March 14). No, Coronavirus isn't 'just like the flu'. Here are the very important differences. Retrieved from https://www.sciencealert.com/the-new-coronavirus-isn-t-like-the-flu-but-they-have-one-big-thing-in-common
AP News. (2020, March 15). What's happening: Europe's cafes and bars shut amid outbreak. Retrieved from https://apnews.com/d659f1a1feb26885a268ba0179edeab5
Aubrey, A. (2020, February 12). Can Coronavirus be crushed by warmer weather? Retrieved from https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/12/805256402/can-coronavirus-be-crushed-by-warmer-weather
CDC. (2020, March 14). Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): How to protect yourself. Retrieved from https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/prevention.html
Elflein, J. (2020, March 13). Coronavirus (COVID-19) disease pandemic- Statistics & Facts. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/topics/5994/the-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/
Harvard: School of Public Health. (2020). The latest on the coronavirus. Retrieved from
https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/hsph-in-the-news/the-latest-on-the-coronavirus/
McCormack, J. (2020, March 14). Coronavirus vs. the Flu: The difference between a 1% and 0.1% fatality rate is huge. Retrieved from https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-vs-the-flu-the-difference-between-a-1-and-0-1-fatality-rate-is-huge/
Resnick, B. (2020, March 13). Covid-19 is not the flu. It's worse. Retrieved from https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/13/21176735/covid-19-coronavirus-worse-than-flu-comparison
Soucheray, S. (2020, February 24). Study of 72,000 Covid-19 patients finds 2.3% death rate. Retrieved from http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate